Milos Kankaras | 2026 | Analytical brief
Lower average scores do not, by themselves, tell us why achievement has declined. This study examines comparisons across the 2018, 2022 and 2025 PISA rounds and the evidence used to explain their differences.
Zenodo: supporting data and charts
About the brief
The analyses draw on common test items and response times, measurement models, socioeconomic and population-composition comparisons, TIMSS pupil panels, and other international and national assessments. They examine whether proposed explanations fit the patterns across countries, subjects and groups of pupils.
The comparisons provide factual counterarguments to simple, single-factor explanations. They do not establish that any proposed factor is irrelevant or estimate how much each caused the decline. Country-level associations, descriptive adjustments and intervention studies answer different questions.
Topics covered
- Social media use
- Screen time and school phone restrictions
- AI use and the socioeconomic pattern
- Curriculum reform
- Pandemic disruption and school closures
- Migration and changing pupil composition
- Rapid responding and test effort
- Changes in assessment methods
- Attention and reading comprehension
- Disengagement and pupil profiles
An independently prepared analytical report, with 15 pages and ten charts. It is not a peer-reviewed article or an OECD publication. The supporting package contains aggregate data and charts, with no pupil-level microdata.
Suggested citation
Kankaraš, M. (2026). Interpreting the PISA score declines: evidence and cautions for ten proposed explanations. Zenodo. 10.5281/zenodo.22801644
Licence: CC BY 4.0 for author-created material.